Passing quickly through things that will not be critical to launch today. Temperatures will be around 80°F (26.5ºC), with dew points of 70ºF (21ºC). Winds at the surface will be from the south-southeast around 10mph, with gentle and variable winds in the lower troposphere. Our peak winds will be around 45kts at a height of about 14km.
Today is all about sea breeze thunderstorms, just like yesterday. I decided to make up a quick lesson on sea breezes. It goes through why they exist, and a little about how they help make thunderstorms. That's the focus of this post.
At the moment, thesea breeze front is located tight against the Florida coast, as shown by the 17:30 visible satellite image. You can zoom in on this map to see that the flow is relatively due southerly at ccfas. The forecasters at the 45th say this does not particularly change where the storms will set up. As there are there, and deal with sea breeze forecasting daily, I trust them primarily.
Yesterday, it seemed our hold was called as soon as a reflectivity return on radar attached to a thunderstorm cloud (even at distance) crossed the 10 nautical mile range ring. That was the criterion described on NASA TV, and both in the moment and in post analysis, this is the variable that I could correlate with the hold most easily. So I’ll focus on where models show thunderstorms today.
The HRRR did admirably with cell position yesterday, so I’ll use it today. It shows weak thunderstorms near ccafs at 20Z, but probably just outside the exclusion zone. As of 18Z, there is no development visible on radar. Looking at the model prog for 20:15Z we can see the cell position more clearly. This is more than 10nm from the launch site, by this forecast. Model soundings show ample instability (between 1500-2000 j*kg-1), so our thunderstorms should easily reach anvil height.
The HRRR minimizes lightning activity with these cells, but seemed to underestimate the lightning potential yesterday. Again, mostly it seems like a radar return within 10nm of the launch pad is our real criteria.
As to landing attempts, we look wonderful. There are bands of thunderstorms which could potentially impact the asds, though the probability of that is relatively small. Swell height, as shownhere, (provided by /u/jdnz82) show very mild seas. If we get the rocket to launch, then we should have a landing where the only issue is just trying to get a rocket onto a floating platform autonomously.
I will be monitoring this carefully, and perhaps trying to get a live radar up here in an hour that will give you a real time view of the area. I will also keep a live update of observations, as I did yesterday. At the moment, we want to see the sea breeze front migrate further from ccafs; if it does, our odds of launching rise. If it stays where it is, then those odds aren’t too great. We should see thunderstorms on radar shortly.
#spacex #meteorologiapokaż całość
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